Demography of Aging and Health

Given the aging of the United States (and for that matter, the world) population, health is a growing industry. As explained by UnderstandingSociety there is a similarity between sociology (the home discipline of demography) and epidemiology. One place where these two disciplines actually intersect is in the study of social influences on health and disease. A persistent finding in the health literature is that education has a strong influence on health and mortality. Age-adjusted death rates for both men and women age 25-64 are much lower for those with higher levels of education, as illustrated by these results published in a report by the National Centers for Disease Statistics.

These differences can not be explained by differences in income and is observed across many different countries.

Unemployment Trends

According to a report released last week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics the unemployment rate in April was 5.0%, up from 4.5 a year ago, but little changed from last month’s rate of 5.1%. Generally these findings were better news than what was expected, but it’s still the case that employment in construction, manufacturing, and retail trade decreased. This is a very short-term view of labor force change, which might be helpful in determining how long and deep our current recession will be, but monthly shifts can also be over-interpreted.

Taking a longer-term view, we can clearly see that among those age 25 and older, unemployment rates are much higher for those with less education. April 2006 to April 2008 unemployment rates grew 13% for those with less than a high school degree, but actually declined slightly (4.5%) for those with a Bachelor’s degree. Of course, you get different trends if you compare across different time periods, yet a consistency across time is that unemployment rates are less volatile for the more educated.

Tune back tomorrow for a post on Health and Aging.

Primary Trends

Many believe that Rev. Wright’s sermons (as they were presented in the media) did substantial damage to Barack Obama’s advantage in North Carolina. Recent polling data supports this interpretation, but polls don’t present a consistent picture and they aren’t the only source of information we have available to analyze this issue. In addition, we have information on the demographic make-up of Indiana and North Carolina. We also have exit poll data.

Exit poll data show that an increasing proportion of white men and women are voting for Clinton, while Clinton’s share of the black vote is declining. Note that Rev. Wright’s sermons were broadcast around March 10 and Obama’s speech on race (responding to the Wright furor) occurred about a week later, March 18. The Ohio Primary was March 4 and Pennsylvania’s was April 22. Judging just from the trend from Ohio to Pennsylvania, it looks like Obama handled the situation well enough not to lose votes to Clinton, at least not during March and April.


Another way of putting this is, if Pennsylvania had the same demographic profile as Maryland, he would have won over 60 percent of the vote there. Based just on the race and gender distributions of Indiana and North Carolina’s populations, as well as voting rates and voting patterns by race and gender, I predict that Obama will win 56% of the vote in North Carolina and Clinton will win 52% of the vote in Indiana. Or, put another way, Obama will collect 114 delegates to Clinton’s 104 (calculations are available on request).

It may happen that, because I have not completely accounted for the recent downward trend in Obama support among white voters, I am underestimating share of the vote that Clinton will win in Indiana on Tuesday. Yet, I don’t think this is as much an issue in North Carolina since there has also been an upward trend in Obama support among African Americans and Obama continues to hold strong among whites who attended college. North Carolina has a fairly well-educated population.

Here are some tables to support my claim above that if Pennsylvania had Maryland's population composition, it would have been a big Obama win.

Tomorrow's post will be about unemployment trends.

Family Life

A long-term trend in family life has been the increase in the labor force participation of mothers. Given these changes in behavior, it isn’t surprising that most people disagree with the statement that “Family life suffers when mothers work full-time.” Yet in recent years, there has been a notable increase in the proportion agreeing with this statement among both men (solid lines) and women (dashed lines). Source: General Social Survey.














Recently many have tried to link concerns about the growing obesity problem with growth in mother's employment. Of course, we all know that correlation isn't causation. Also, I think some people forget that many more two-parent families would be in poverty if mother’s didn’t work.

Monday we'll post a comment on North Carolina demographics and exactly how bad this Rev. Wright affair would have to be to lead to an Obama loss in that state.

Indiana's Demographics

After the Pennsylvania primary, much was made of Obama’s senior problem. Exit poll data indicate that Obama has recently done better with younger voters, those with a college degree, and African Americans. Clinton has done better with Anglos and (sometimes) Hispanics, older voters, and those with less education. How did Pennsylvania’s demographics disadvantage Obama? And perhaps more importantly as we head into the Indiana Primary, are Indiana’s demographics similarly advantageous to Clinton?


The answer is mixed. Pennsylvania’s age distribution is older than the rest of the country. Indiana is more similar to the United States as a whole. This works in Obama's favor. Indiana’s race-ethnic distribution is much like Pennsylvania’s although there is a slightly higher proportion of African Americans. Given that Obama gets an extremely high percentage of the black vote, even this small difference can work in his favor, just as the slightly older age distribution in Pennsylvania worked in Clinton’s.

Slightly more hopeful news for Clinton can be found in the education distribution. Indiana has an even lower proportion with a bachelor’s degree than Pennsylvania. Her enthusiasm might be slightly dampened, however, when she finds that this is not because Indiana has more people who stopped their formal education at the end of high school. In Pennsylvania, Clinton won 64% of the votes of high school graduates who didn't go to college. Indiana's actually has a slightly smaller prorpotion of people in this group and proportionately more people who started but didn’t complete college. Clinton’s advantage in this group is not great; she won 51% of this group in Pennsylvania.














Bottom Line: Overall the demographics of Indiana compared to Pennsylvania indicate that the upcoming race should be closer and and Demography is King.

Come back tomorrow for an analysis of trends in attitudes towards mother's employment.