Plenty of work?

One curious inconsistency noted by yesterday’s comment, is the fact that there are many jobs that go unfilled. How can the unemployment rate increase while jobs are available? One answer to this question is that it takes some time to someone to respond to an advertisement and be hired. Another, even more important factor, is that there is a mismatch between the characteristics of the unemployed and the characteristics of the jobs available. The unemployment rate is much, much higher for teens and for those with lower levels of education (see graph below). Another form of mismatch is between the location of the employer and the location of the employee. This is especially important now that gas prices are so high and commuting costs are higher. If the salary doesn’t cover the costs of being employed, an potential worker can not afford to take the job.

Where do you get your news?

The 2006 General Social Survey asked respondents “Where do you get your news?” Their responses indicate that television continues to play an important role, with just about half stating that it is their primary source. Coming in second were newspapers, magazines and books, with newspapers dominating this category. The internet was the third most common response, with 14% getting their news mostly from the internet (like me).

Favored media vary considerably by level of education. Television is preferred by everyone, but much more so at lower education levels. As education increases use of written sources and the internet increases.

High School Graduation Rates

The National Center for Education Statistics reports trends in the high school graduate rate since 1969. This is calculated as the percentage of students who start high school that have received their regular diploma (i.e. not a GED) 4 years later. The estimates for most recent years (the yellow part of the graph below) are projections, since those who started high school in 2005 haven’t had 4 years to complete their degree. The first thing that strikes me is the overall flatness of the line. Overall, levels of education are increasing and those not achieving a high school diploma are excluded from many jobs. GEDs can make up some of the difference, but previous research suggests that the employment characteristics of those with GEDs are more similar to those with no certification than those with a regular diploma. That high school graduation rates went up from the late 1990s to 2005 is promising, but recent declines lead me to question whether these improvements can be maintained.

Importantly, until recently the federal government reported graduation rates above 80%, but some claim that the actual rate is under 70%. One issue was that accountability systems have schools and districts calculating rates at the local level. This raises a problem when struggling students leave one school to attend another. The original school does not consider him a drop out, but the new school wouldn’t have this student included as a member of the freshman class. Another is the tendency to remove students who receive GEDs from the statistical system or to count them as graduates. As stated above GEDs are not equivalent to high school diplomas. A third issue is raised by special education students. Ambiguities allow officials to manipulate the numbers to present their schools and districts in the most positive light.

Given the importance of earning a high school diploma and the unremarkable record of the United States educational system in bringing students up to this minimal standard of competency, it is important for us to invest in the federal educational data system.

Graduation Rates

A report released last week by the National Center for Education Statistics describes graduation rates for the cohort that entered Title IV institutions in 2000. On average only 36 percent of those starting college in 2000 had received their Bachelor’s degree after 4 years. This increased to 53 after 5 years. Private not-for-profit schools have better graduation rates than public institutions or for-profit schools. Perhaps this is because private schools are more selective? It seems to me more likely that students get through more quickly because tuition is a lot higher and also because these schools typically provide better services to students.

Internet Advantage

Those of us who spend endless hours on the intenet might find it hard to imagine that some people spend little-to-no time online. In 2006 there was a distinct educational gradient with the mean number of hours spent online per week for those with a college degree more than double than the number of hours spent online for those with less than a high school degree. In fact, nearly 3 out of 4 people with less than a high school degree spent zero hours on the internet.

Maybe the disparity arises because educated folks are more likely to have jobs with internet access or maybe it's because college life encourages internet use. It seems likely that there are also differences in internet access at home, but according to the Pew Internet & American Life project the so-called digital divide is closing somewhat in recent years.

College Squeeze

It seems that the college admissions game continues to get more crazed every year. This is true not only among elite schools, but also public universities. Two issues make getting into a top college much more difficult in recent years. The first is the remarkable growth in postsecondary schooling. Nowadays, most high school graduates continue their educations after receiving their diplomas. Another factor has to do with the number of babies born approximately 18 years ago.














Between 1985 and 1990 the number of babies born in the United States increased from 3.67 million to 4 million. That meant that those applying for college this year were competing with a lot more people than those applying just five years ago. The situation will be even worse next year, but should start to get better in 2010.

Those of you with 7 year olds might start working on buffing up those GPAs and test scores ASAP.



Tomorrow...West Virginia predictions.

Unemployment Trends

According to a report released last week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics the unemployment rate in April was 5.0%, up from 4.5 a year ago, but little changed from last month’s rate of 5.1%. Generally these findings were better news than what was expected, but it’s still the case that employment in construction, manufacturing, and retail trade decreased. This is a very short-term view of labor force change, which might be helpful in determining how long and deep our current recession will be, but monthly shifts can also be over-interpreted.

Taking a longer-term view, we can clearly see that among those age 25 and older, unemployment rates are much higher for those with less education. April 2006 to April 2008 unemployment rates grew 13% for those with less than a high school degree, but actually declined slightly (4.5%) for those with a Bachelor’s degree. Of course, you get different trends if you compare across different time periods, yet a consistency across time is that unemployment rates are less volatile for the more educated.

Tune back tomorrow for a post on Health and Aging.

Education

In the United States, the education distribution depends on age. The youngest age group has lower levels of education because they haven’t finished their schooling yet. The oldest age group came of age in an era when finishing high school was not as necessary for employment and going to college was much less common. This table provides some evidence that many people continue to get more education even in middle age. The proportion with a graduate or professional degree is highest among those age 45 to 64.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census