Tuesday, May 13, 2008

West Virginia Primary

I did farily well predicting the North Carolina and Indiana primaries just using exit poll and census data, especially if you ignore my delegate calculations. (Doh!) Let's see how dumb my luck was...
I worked under the assumption that voting tendencies by race and gender would hold steady. And the table above shows that they did. If anything, Clinton grabbed a larger share of the white vote than expected. This was offset by the fact that the voting rates for whites were much lower than for blacks. Obama is clearly drawing many new minority voters to the polls.
West Virginia has an exceptionally large proportion of its white population that never went to college. We can expect these voters to like Clinton over Obama, but lets see if they actually go to the polls now that Clinton's chances of receiving the nomination appear severely dented.
Bottom line: Keeping with what so far as worked pretty well, I predict that Clinton will win West Virginia with 58% of the vote. Currently polls suggest an even larger win. Let's see who's right.

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